Homebuyers received an unexpected gift around the holidays as mortgage rates dropped rapidly late last year.
They fell from a peak of about 8% in the fall to the mid-6% range in late December, a level many economists and forecasters hadn’t anticipated until the end of 2024—if they were being optimistic. Now with the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to cut its own rates this year, the question on the minds of many aspiring homebuyers is just how low mortgage rates will drop this year.
Most of the real estate experts who spoke with Realtor.com® say they expect rates will stay in the 6% range this year, but some believe rates could slip into the 5% range by year’s end.
“The direction we’re headed is down this year,” says Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting and a former economist for the Federal Reserve. “But how far down … is a big question mark.”
Higher mortgage rates had effectively frozen the housing market last year. But they fell in mid-December after the Fed indicated that its campaign of raising interest rates to tame inflation was over—and the Fed could cut rates three times next year if inflation continues to moderate.
Mortgage rates are separate but directly influenced by the Fed’s short-term interest rates. So when the Fed reduces its rates, mortgage rates are likely to decrease.
“We expect a gradual reduction in mortgage rates, but it’s going to play out in fits and starts,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “We could see rates tick a little higher before they continue to fall.”
Mortgage rates have, in fact, climbed a bit recently.
They averaged 6.75% for 30-year fixed-rate loans on Friday, up from a low of 6.61% in late December, according to Mortgage News Daily. The rise is a result of new unemployment data released last week that shows the economy is stronger than the Fed would prefer as it continues to fight inflation.
Many investors had expected the Fed to begin slashing its rates as early as March, which would likely have resulted in mortgage rates falling. But the Fed might keep rates high for longer as it considers the strong jobs data along with how much inflation is coming down. The more the economy cools, the quicker the Fed could cut rates.
“We will see some bumpiness and mild volatility as we go through January and February, but mortgage rates will keep heading modestly lower,” says David Stevens, CEO of Mountain Lake Consulting, which services the mortgage industry. “We could see mortgage rates by year end at the bottom of the 6% range, and we could potentially go into the [5% range] if we see softening in the economy.”
How low will mortgage rates go?
While real estate experts are divided on just how much mortgage rates will fall, most expect they will stay in the 6% range. However, some believe they can dip into the high 5% by the end of 2024.
“There’s every reason to believe that we continue to move in the right direction unless there’s something that comes out of nowhere, which has been the story of the last couple of years,” says Sahm.
A rate in the 5% range could provide buyers struggling with the worst housing affordability in decades with substantial savings. Buyers who purchased a median-priced home with a 5.5% mortgage rate would pay about $216 less a month for their mortgage than those who locked in a 6.5% rate. And they would save roughly $442 a month compared with buyers with a 7.5% rate. (This assumes buyers put down 20% on a $420,000 home.)
However, the days of the 2% and 3% rates offered during the COVID-19 pandemic aren’t likely to return.
“I don’t think we’ll ever see them again at those levels,” says Stevens.
The Fed wouldn’t reduce its rates by enough to bring mortgage rates down to those lows unless the U.S. economy was in dire straits.
“If we ended up back there, we’d be in a very bad recession,” says Sahm.
How lower mortgage rates will affect the housing market
Lower mortgage rates are already having an impact on the housing market.
When rates went down at the end of last year, New Jersey–based mortgage lender Shmuel Shayowitz saw more first-time homebuyers get pre-approved for loans. Even more encouraging were the conversations he began having with homeowners about how they would consider selling and moving into new homes when rates went down into the 5% range.
“Because the thought is rates will be lower, more people are comfortable jumping back into the market,” says Shayowitz, president of Approved Funding in River Edge, NJ.
Two years ago, mortgage rates in the mid-6% would have scared off (or priced out) many would-be buyers. By now, though, buyers have had time to get used to them. They might even seem like a bargain compared with the roughly 8% rates seen in October.
However, reduced rates might be a double-edged sword as more would-be buyers enter the market. The nation is still struggling with an extreme housing shortage. Additional competition for a limited number of homes for sale could usher in the return of bidding wars and push home prices even higher.
“It will cause a noteworthy amount of pickup in the market,” says Jacob Channel, the senior economist at LendingTree, an online financial services marketplace.
Many homeowners who snagged ultralow rates during the pandemic will remain reluctant to move and give up those savings. And mortgage rates and prices will still remain high. This will make purchasing a home a significant financial challenge for many buyers.
“The housing market’s not going to go crazy,” says Channel. “It’s not going to be as active as it was or as frenzied as it was when rates were record lows in 2020 and 2021.”
Clare Trapasso is the executive news editor of Realtor.com. She was previously a reporter for the Associated Press, the New York Daily News, and a Financial Times publication. She also taught journalism courses at several New York City colleges. Email clare.trapasso@realtor.com or follow @claretrap on X (formerly Twitter).
Doors and windows are two of the biggest energy wasting areas of the house. In the summer, they may allow cool air to escape, and in the winter, they allow heat to do the same. They also allow cold winter drafts to permeate the interior of the house, making rooms cold and uncomfortable.
Normally, you can tell if your door is the source of a cold draft by simply running your hand around the perimeter of the frame, and along the bottom. Older doors that emit winter drafts may have shifted over time. This causes gaps along the openings and insulation loss. Sometimes, doors are simply not installed tightly in the first place. There are plenty of companies out there that also offers replacement doors. Kelly Window & Door is a replacement window and door installation company that can help in these circumstances to make sure the heat stays out but can also look at the windows to see if there are small cracks or gaps letting air and heat out.
If it is not possible to replace the door with one that is more energy efficient, that fits tightly into the frame, there are other ways to eliminate some of the problem.
Weather Stripping
Felt or rubber weather stripping is available everywhere, from home improvement stores to discount chains. This insulating material, that has one sticky side and one softer, pliable side, is available in various lengths and widths to fit any frame. It is also easy to cut to length.
Attach stripping to the frame, so that when the door closes, the gaps that allowed the cold air in seal. The thickness of this insulation depends chiefly on the amount of space you have to work with. Using an insulation that is too thin will not produce the desired results. Insulation that is too thick will not allow the door to close properly.
Door Sweep
A gap beneath the door is usally the cause of the cold air that travels across the floor of a room. Correct this by adding a door sweep.
You can purchase door sweeps any width door. They are also custom made to fit. Attach by screwing the sweep onto the bottom of the door. Or, in some instances, fitting the sweep over the bottom by pushing it in place starting at one edge of the door. Sweeps can be either metal with a rubber edge, foam, or rubber.
Draft Guards
If there is still a noticeable draft beneath the door, or for a quick fix, add draft guards. You can also make your own as they are made from material. Sew material into a tube shape. Stuff with fiberfill or some other material. Then, lay draft guard against the bottom edge of the door keeping the cold air to a minimum.
Once you have insulated around your doors, you should see an improvement, not only in the temperature of the room, but eventually in the cost of heating and cooling your home.
Set up a tent in a room that connects with a bathroom and spend time/sleep inside the tent. No tent? Drape blankets over a table for a similar effect.
Make a Buddy Burner for light and a small amount of heat. Be sure to vent the room to allow fumes to escape to the outside and not accumulate inside your home.
Use an indoor-safe portable stove for cooking small meals. Hot food helps boost morale.
If you have a fireplace, maintain a good-sized fire throughout the day and night. If you can’t use your fireplace, be sure the damper is closed tightly to block cold air from entering your home. Also, invest in a carbon monoxide detector with battery backup.
Wrap yourself in one or more blankets. To help you stay warm while moving about, wrap fleece blankets around your waist or under your arms and pin them. Blanket scarves are also good options for this technique. Just don’t overload to the point you excessively sweat because that actually pulls heat AWAY from the body.
If you have a gas range, boil/heat water and then pour it into a hot water bottle. (Learn how to start your gas range’s pilot light.)
Make an Apple Box Stove to cook food and as an off-grid method for staying warm without electricity.
Spend the day inside the warmest sleeping bag you own.
Put bricks or large rocks in your fireplace, heat them, remove safely using tongs, and then wrap them in blankets to warm beds and bodies.
Wear Appropriate Clothing
Wear fleece-lined pants and/or fleece-lined tights. It’s amazing how this one strategy will help you stay warm without electricity. These are the pants I own and love.
Wear wool socks and a wool cap throughout the day and night.
Wear socks and shoes in the house, and never stand or rest your feet on a bare floor (tile, concrete, etc.) Either wear socks or place your feet on a rug or blanket. This minimizes conductive cooling. If you have bare floors and not enough rugs, put blankets or even towels on the floor in areas where you’ll be walking and spending time.
Shop now for cold-weather clothing in second-hand clothing stores as well as from outdoors/sporting goods stores and, of course, online.
Keep your house warm without power
Cover uninsulated vinyl or hardwood floors with throw rugs or blankets. The estimated heat loss through floors is about 10%.
Hang heavy blankets over windows and exterior doors, especially glass sliding doors.
Block drafts under doors by cutting the legs off of a pair of tights and stuffing socks into it. Lay at the base of any door you feel cold air coming through. Or plan ahead and order them.
Avoid pipe freezes by wrapping vulnerable pipes with a heating cable.
Heat rises. If possible, spend most of your time upstairs as long as it’s also well-insulated.
Invest in an indoor safe radiant propane heater like Mr. Heater Big Buddy Portable Heater, which has an Oxygen Depletion Sensor and accidental tip-over safety shut-off. Add propane and a carbon monoxide detector.
Change Locations
Sit in your car with the heater on. NOTE: This is a short-term solution and should only be done with your car parked in a well-ventilated garage or in an otherwise open area. This also allows you time to charge your phones and electronics.
In a dire emergency, check with your town/city to see if any public warming sites are available.
Other Ways to Stay Warm Without Power
Cuddle up with your cats and/or dogs.
Keep babies and toddlers warm with your body heat by carrying them in a sling or other baby carrier.
Do a moderate workout to a YouTube video or make up your own routine to increase body heat but not to the point of sweating a lot, which is counterproductive.
Prepare a hot beverage or a cup of soup stew using your off-grid cooking method. It will warm you from within.
If buying or selling a home is your goal for 2024, it’s important to understand today’s housing market, know your why, and work with industry experts to bring your homeownership vision for the new year into focus.
Over the last year, the economy had a big impact on the housing market, and likely on your wallet too. That’s why it’s critical to have a clear picture of not just the market today, but also on what you want out of it when you buy or sell a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“The key to making a good decision in this challenging housing market is to be laser focused on what you need now and in the years ahead, so that you can stay in your home long enough that buying is a sound financial decision.”
Here are a few things to think through as you define your goals for 2024.
1. Know Your Why
You’re dreaming about making a move for a reason – what is it? No matter what’s happening in the market, there are still many compelling reasons to buy a home today. Your needs may have changed in a way your current house can’t address, or you could be ready to step into homeownership for the first time. Use your why and your motivation as a guidepost in partnership with an expert advisor to make sure your move gives you a lasting sense of accomplishment.
2. Figure Out What Your Next Home Needs To Look Like
You know you want to move, but how would you describe your dream home? The number of homes for sale has grown recently, and that could mean more options to choose from when you buy. But overall housing supply is still lower than more normal years in the market, so you’ll have to work closely with a pro to find what you’re looking for. Just be sure to keep your budget in mind as you balance your wants and needs. The better you understand what’s essential and where you can be flexible, the easier it will be to find a home that’s right for you.
3. Determine if You’re Ready To Buy
Getting clear on your budget and available savings is essential before you get too far into the process. Partnering with a local agent and a lender early is the best way to make sure you’re in a good position to buy. This could include planning how much to save for a down payment, getting pre-approved for a home loan, and assessing your current home equity if you’re selling your existing house.
A Professional Will Guide You Through Every Step of the Process
Buying or selling a home takes expertise to navigate. If that feels a bit overwhelming, that’s normal. Don’t let uncertainty hold you back from your goals this year. A trusted expert will help you bridge that gap and give you the facts and advice you need about today’s housing market.
Bottom Line
Let’s connect to plan how to make your homeownership dreams a reality in 2024.
New Year’s Eve events in Orange County are best celebrated with kids in tow… especially if they are daytime celebrations! What better way to celebrate the New Year than getting the kids in to bed early?
Scroll down for a great list of places that host family-friendly New Year’s Eve celebrations in Southern California.
Check back throughout the season as we’ll be adding more New Year’s Eve events to this list as they become available to us.
For ease of use, this New Year’s Eve events in Orange County list is organized by city in alphabetical order. Take a look and let us know if we missed one of your favorite winter holiday events! Email (SoCal@LivingMiVidaLoca.com) or message us on Facebook.
If you’re wondering what to do during the holidays in Orange County, check out our growing list ofwinter and holiday events.
New Year’s Eve Celebrations 2023 for families in Orange County
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Anaheim
The Family Soulful New Years Eve Celebration | The Stuffed Potato – Packing House, 440 S Anaheim Blvd December 31, 2023 | 7:00 pm – 9:00 pm Tickets: $55 Get ready to ring in the new year with a night full of fun, laughter, and great music. This in-person event will take place on Sunday, December 31, 2023, starting at 9:00 PM
At The Stuffed Potato, we believe in creating memorable experiences, and this New Year’s Eve will be no exception. Our venue provides a cozy and inviting atmosphere, perfect for celebrating with friends and family. Each person in attendance will receive a beautifully designed, generous and delicious charcuterie tray, party favors, and of course champagne for the New Year Toast.
The Family, a renowned local band, will be taking the stage to entertain you all night long. Their energetic performances and diverse repertoire of music will keep you dancing and singing along throughout the evening.
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Buena Park
New Year’s Eve Bash | John’s Incredible Pizza December 31, 2023 | 7:00 pm – 1:00 am Watch the BALL DROP at midnight on our BIG SCREENS! Space limited. Event may sell out. BONUS! Buy by Dec 26 to get an extra 20 Fun World Credits!
Celebration Package ($34.99)
Each Guest Receives:
Endless Buffet
Endless Beverages
Unlimited Rides
75 Fun World Credits ($18.75 value!)
New Year’s Accessories: Hat and Glow Necklace(while supplies last)
Premium Package ($44.99)
Each Guest Receives:
Endless Buffet
Endless Beverage
Unlimited Rides
150 Fun World Credits ($37.50 value!)
New Year’s Accessories: Hat and Glow Necklace(while supplies last)
Upgrade your NYE experience! Get your glow on in your own private room with glow supplies. ($100/room)
Each Room Includes:
Private Party Room 7pm – 1am
Glow Accessories
Fits up to 16 guests. Rooms may be expanded. Purchase additional for more capacity.
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Costa Mesa
Winter Fest OC NYE Celebration | OC Fair & Event Center December 31, 2023 | 2:00 pm – 12:30 am Countdown to an unforgettable New Year’s celebration at Winter Fest OC! Join us for double the fun as we ring in the new year with two incredible celebrations. At 6pm, groove to the sounds of Tribute by Twist on Taylor, and later, at the stroke of midnight, let 24k Bruno Mars Tribute dazzle you into 2024. It’s a night of music, dancing, and joy, promising to make your New Year’s Eve truly spectacular. And to add even more magic to the night, be sure to catch our dazzling fireworks shows that will light up the sky. Don’t miss out on this double dose of fun as we bid farewell to the old year and welcome the new one with a bang!
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Fullerton
First Night Fullerton | Garden Grove Main Library December 31, 2023 | 7:00 pm – midnight Ring in the New Year with us at ‘First Night‘ at the Downtown Fullerton Plaza! Join the city’s most exciting New Year’s Eve event on Sunday, December 31, 2023
• Live Music: Enjoy electrifying performances from local bands and talented artists on multiple stages throughout the festival grounds. Journey Through Time will be on the Mainstage, Soundbytes will be rockin’ on the Harbor Stage, & Latin Soul Band LA will have you dancing on the Pomona Stage. • Culinary Delights: Savor an array of delicious food and beverage options from gourmet food trucks and local vendors offering a diverse selection of cuisines to tantalize your taste buds. • Family Fun Zone: Delight in an assortment of activities designed for all ages, including face painting, balloon and character artists, stilt walkers, a kids lane with interactive games, and much more. Let the little ones revel in the festive atmosphere with dedicated entertainment just for them. • Fireworks Extravaganza: Prepare to be awe-inspired as the night sky illuminates with a breathtaking fireworks display at midnight, marking the start of a promising New Year.
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Garden Grove
Noon Year’s Eve | Garden Grove Main Library December 31, 2023 | 11:30 am – 12:15 pm Balloon Drop at 12:00 pm
Join us in celebrating Noon Year’s Eve. Activities include Balloon Drop at Noon, bubble room, photo booth, and craft. Supplies are available while they last.
Noon Year’s Eve | Irvine Heritage Library December 31, 2023 | 11:30 am – 12:30 pm Celebrate the new year at NOON! Crafts, treats and a countdown to noon with a balloon drop! Make sure to bring your camera!
New Year’s Eve – East Coast Style | Hanger 24 – 17877 Von Karman Ave, Unit 110 December 31, 2023 | 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm Live music from 1-5pm, face painting 1-3pm, balloon artist 3-5pm, plus games and inflatable fun all day long! Open 11am to 8pm New Year’s Eve.
Noon Year’s Eve Party | Pretend City December 31, 2023 | 10:00 am – 4:00 pm Twas’ the day before New Year’s and all through the city the citizens are stirring and buzzing about! With sparkling streamers, blowouts, noise makers, and confetti that will make this the party of all parties! “It’s Midnight Somewhere” Confetti Countdown Times:
9:30 a.m. (Member’s Only Countdown)
12:00 p.m.
3:00 p.m.
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Orange
New Year’s Eve Party | Holiday Skate Center December 31, 2023 | 8:00 pm – 1:00 am $30 includes skates, pizza, and balloon drop. Come watch the balloon drop and win cash & other prizes.
New Year’s Eve All Ages Bounce | BounceU of Orange December 31, 2023 | 11:00 am – 2:00 pm Join us for lots of playtime to end 2022. Best way to welcome the New Year! Don’t forget to bring your SOCKS! Lunch and sparkling apple cider are INCLUDED!!!
New Years Celebration | Dave & Buster’s December 31, 2023 | 9:00 pm Bottles popping! People cheering! Power Cards tapping! New Years Eve at Dave & Buster’s is more than just a good time — it’s the ultimate way to kick off a year of FUN! Grab tickets for your whole crew and stop by for an exclusive New Year’s event at D&B — a jam-packed night of unlimited video game play, & yes, lots & lots of toasts! Cheers!
General Admission ($85.57 +$6.73fee) includes: Access to our delectable appetizer banquet, unlimited soda, coffee & tea, a $20 Power Card® with Unlimited Video Game Play, a special New Year’s Eve toast, suggested 18% gratuity, and taxes.
Premium Admission ($115.57 +$8.53 fee) includes: Access to our delectable appetizer banquet, unlimited soda, coffee, & tea, a $20 Power Card® with Unlimited Video Game Play, a special New Year’s Eve toast, two (2) drink tickets valid for beer, wine, or specialty cocktails, suggested 18% gratuity, and taxes.
Family-friendly New Year’s Eve Events in Yorba Linda
Noon Year’s Eve | My Gym YORBA LINDA December 31, 2023 | 11:15 am – 12:15 pm Join us for a Countdown to Noon Year party, instead. We’ll have games, rides, gymnastics, adventures, and more for the kids. We’ll countdown to noon with a balloon drop and dance party! 0yrs to 8yrs
1 Session : $25.00 per Session
2 Sessions : $22.50 per Session
3+ Sessions : $21.00 per Session
Thank you for reading! Stay updated on fun things to see, eat and do in Orange County by following us on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok!
Originally published on December 6, 2023. Last Updated on December 26, 2023 by Pattie Cordova
If you’re thinking about retirement or have already retired this year, it’s a good time to consider if your current house is still a good fit for the next chapter in your life.
Fortunately, you may be in a better position to make a move than you realize. Here are a few things to think about as you decide whether or not to sell and make a move.
How Long You’ve Been in Your Home
From 1985 to 2008, the average length of time homeowners typically stayed in their homes was only six years. But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), that number is rising today, meaning many homeowners are living in their houses even longer (see graph below):
When you live in a home for a significant period of time, it’s natural for you to experience a number of changes in your life while you’re in that house. As those life changes and milestones happen, your needs may change. And if your current home no longer meets them, you may have better options waiting for you.
How Much Equity You’ve Gained
Additionally, if you’ve been in your house for more than a few years, you’ve likely built-up significant equity that can fuel your next move. That’s because the longer you’ve been in your house, the more likely it’s grown in value due to home price appreciation. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) illustrates that point (see graph below):
While home price growth varies by state and local area, the national average shows the typical homeowner who’s been in their house for five years saw it increase in value by nearly 60%. And the average homeowner who’s owned their home since 1991 saw it more than triple in value over that time.
Consider Your Retirement Goals
Whether you’re looking to downsize, relocate to a dream destination, or simply be closer to loved ones, your home equity can be a key to realizing your homeownership goals. NARshares that for recent home sellers, the primary reason to move was to be closer to loved ones.
Whatever your home goals are, a trusted real estate agent can work with you to find the best option. They’ll help you sell your current house and guide you through buying the home that’s right for your lifestyle today.
Bottom Line
Retirement can bring about major changes in your life, including what you need from your home. Let’s connect to explore the available homes in our area.
Looking for delicious food at a local establishment to celebrate Christmas Eve or Christmas Day but don’t know who’s open? OpenTable.com might be a handy resource. The restaurants listed on OpenTable are by no means a comprehensive list, but mostly restaurants that conveniently accept reservations. Type in your city/metro and see what pops up for your next dining experience…holidays or not!
When you read about the housing market, you’ll probably come across some information about inflation or recent decisions made by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). But how do those two things impact you and your homebuying plans? Here’s what you need to know.
The Federal Funds Rate Hikes Have Stalled
One of the Fed’s primary goals is to lower inflation. In order to do that, they started raising the Federal Funds Rate to slow down the economy. Even though this doesn’t directly dictate what happens with mortgage rates, it does have an impact.
Recently inflation has started to cool, a signal those increases worked and are bringing inflation back down. As a result, the Fed’s hikes have gotten smaller and less frequent. In fact, there haven’t been any increases since July (see graph below):
And not only has the Fed decided not to raise the Federal Funds Rate the last three times the committee met, they’ve signaled there may actually be rate cuts coming in 2024. According to the New York Times (NYT):
“Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged in their final policy decision of 2023 and forecast that they will cut borrowing costs three times in the coming year, a sign that the central bank is shifting toward the next phase in its fight against rapid inflation.”
This indicates the Fed thinks the economy and inflation are improving. Why does that matter to you and your plans to buy a home? It could end up leading to lower mortgage rates and improved affordability.
Mortgage Rates Are Coming Down
Mortgage rates are influenced by a wide variety of factors, and inflation and the Fed’s actions (or as has been the case recently, inaction) play a big role. Now that the Fed has paused the increases, it looks more likely mortgage rates will continue their downward trend (see graph below):
Although mortgage rates may remain volatile, their recent trend combined with expert forecasts indicate they could continue to go down in 2024. That would improve affordability for buyers and make it easier for sellers to move since they won’t feel as locked-in to their current, low mortgage rate.
Bottom Line
The Fed’s decisions have an indirect impact on mortgage rates. By not raising the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates are likely to continue declining. Rely on a trustworthy real estate expert to give you expert advice about changes in the housing market and how they affect you.
*** PLEASE VERIFY THESE EVENTS BEFORE VISITING ***
One of our favorite things to do as a family, is to get in the car, turn on the Christmas station, stop at Starbucks or McD’s for some peppermint hot chocolate, and go looking for Christmas lights. It is one of our absolute favorite Christmas traditions. It gets us in the holiday spirit, and it is doesn’t cost a cent, other than gas money. We can’t wait to do it again this year. If you’re looking for some fantastic places to watch Christmas lights, here is a list of the best neighborhoods and streets in So Cal. Enjoy!!!
*** PLEASE VERIFY THESE EVENTS BEFORE VISITING ***
If you’re thinking about moving, it’s important to know what’s happening in the housing market. Here’s an update on the supply of homes currently for sale. Whether you’re buying or selling, the number of homes in your area is something you should pay attention to.
In the housing market, there are regular patterns that happen every year, called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season and also when the most homes are typically listed for sale (homes coming onto the market are known in the industry as new listings). In the second half of each year, the number of new listings typically decreases as the pace of sales slows down.
The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):
Looking at this graph, three things become clear:
2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.
Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.
This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, what’s happening is the number of new listings is stabilizing. And, there are even more new listings coming to the market this year compared to the same time last year.
What Does This Mean for You?
For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. It means you have a more steady stream of options coming onto the market and more choices for your next home than you would have at the same time last year. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.
For sellers, while new listings are breaking seasonal norms, inventory is still well below where it was before the pandemic. If you look again at the graph, you’ll see the black line for this year is still lower than normal, meaning inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, your house has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in your local area, connect with a real estate agent.
Doorbell cameras are “super helpful” at stopping or catching porch pirates, said Amber Orrey, outreach coordinator at the Mount Shasta Police Department. However, people who get home deliveries — and even those who pick up orders at Amazon lockers or retail stores — should take precautions, she said.
While not a guarantee you won’t be the victim of a theft, you can make it harder for porch pirates to pilfer parcels.
“Check tracking notices. Have more expensive items sent to a locker or schedule a delivery time for when you’re going to be home,” Orrey said.
Don’t leave packages unattended for long periods and schedule deliveries for times you’ll be home.
Ship merchandise to a physical store for pick up.
Require a signature for delivery if someone is home to sign for it.
Use a locker. Some retailers, including Amazon.com, offer secure package-receiving locations. You can access a locker with a key or code.
Take precautionary measures, like installing motion-sensitive lights or a door camera. In some cases, this equipment can discourage package thieves.
Call the police if you see someone stealing packages from a neighbor.
If you’ll be out of town during the holidays, ask a trusted neighbor to check your porch for deliveries daily.
If you ask for a neighbor’s help, give them a signed note with permission to come on your property and take your packages, just in case another neighbor spots them and calls the police.
And dole out some gratitude. Make sure you thank people afterwards and volunteer “to return the favor” when they’re away, according to etiquette specialist Emily Post’s Neighborly Manners guide.
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